Harvard 88, Columbia 84 (2OT)
Friday, February 14, 2014 | 7 p.m. ET | Levien Gymnasium (Manhattan, NY)
Harvard 19-4, Columbia 14-10
Recap: Despite Alex Rosenberg’s career-high 34 points, Harvard was able to outlast Columbia in double overtime, 88-84. For the Crimson, Siyani Chambers and Steve Moundou-Missi scored 22 apiece, while Wesley Saunders added 19 points, 7 assists, 2 steals and 3 blocks. For Columbia, sophomore guard Maodo Lo contributed 20 points—including 18 in the second half/OT—along with 5 rebounds and 5 assists. Columbia erased a 12-point second half deficit to force overtime, but Harvard simply made more plays down the stretch. With the win, Harvard remains tied with Yale atop the Ivy League standings (7-1).
NBA Prospects
1. Wesley Saunders (JR, Harvard): SG, 6-5, 215
2. Alex Rosenberg (JR, Columbia): PF, 6-7, 215
Next Tier
3. Siyani Chambers (SO, Harvard): PG, 6-0, 170
4. Maodo Lo (SO, Columbia): SG, 6-3, 180
5. Steve Moundou-Missi (JR, Harvard): PF, 6-7, 225
6. Laurent Rivard (SR, Harvard): SG, 6-5, 215
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NBA Prospects
1. Wesley Saunders — SG, 6-5, 215
Junior
Season (34 mpg): 15 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4 APG, 2 SPG
48% FG, 32% 3-point
Game: 19 points, 7 assists, 3 blocks, 2 steals
5-8 FG, 8-12 FT
Outlook: Saunders, a do-it-all wing, has the size, strength and skill to make an impact in any conference. He just happens to play for Harvard.
At 6-5 with long arms and solid athleticism, Saunders contributes in virtually every aspect of the game. He unselfishly—and effectively—distributes the basketball, is a strong rebounder from the wing, and scores efficiently (15 PPG on 48% FG, 55% TS) within the framework of the offense. He’s not a go-to scorer, per se, but he can penetrate the lane and create offense. Saunders did whatever he wanted vs. Columbia. Scoring-wise, he was smooth on the pick and roll, pulling up or taking it to the basket with grace and body control. He’s not the most explosive leaper, but his long arms and strong build allow him to finish through contact. Good shooter, either with his feet set or off the dribble, although not consistent from 3 (32% on 1.3 attempts per game).
Saunders scored 19 points on 8 field goals. I would’ve liked to see him be more aggressive down the stretch, but instead he simply played within the offense until a good shot presented itself. Saunders displayed good passing instincts, as he converged the defense and kicked it to open shooters time and time again.
However, Saunders’ two-way ability is what distinguishes him. Saunders guards the other team’s best perimeter player every game, no exceptions, and still has a major impact offensively. This lends credence not only to his physical makeup, but also his stamina, mental toughness and competitive nature. Saunders is long and physical to contain penetration and contest layups. He averages 2 steals per game, and his 3.4% steal percentage ranks first in the Ivy and 116th nationally. That said, he has an average build by NBA standards, and on film, he appears to struggle containing penetration. He sometimes loses his footing on the perimeter.
I had some reservations about Saunders’ below-average leaping ability (explosiveness), and also about the competition he’s playing against. He’s posted big numbers throughout his career, but I question if Saunders is capable of scoring, distributing and defending against high-major players. Can he create space for himself against NBA defenders? No Columbia player could match Saunders’ physical makeup, let alone his skill set, so it was difficult for me to gauge his NBA potential one way or the other. What I could gauge, however, was that Saunders was the most offensively gifted and polished player on the court.
Here’s Saunders’ shot attempt breakdown this season (FG% in parenthesis):
52% jump shots (44%)
33% around basket (44%)
6.5% runner (17%)
8% post up (47% on 15 attempts)
Video: Unselfish / Court Vision
— Saunders’ 3.9 assists per game is second best on Harvard, despite the fact he hardly brings the ball up the court. He can distribute out of the pick and roll, or penetrate and kick. He is patient and decisive with the basketball. Saunders’ 25.6% assist percentage ranks 197th nationally.
Video: Attacking the Basket
— Saunders has good extension and body control to finish once in the paint. Smooth rip-through in the triple threat position, and is ambidextrous when finishing at the basket. That said, he’ll need to showcase the ability to change speeds in the half court.
Video: Catch and Shoot
— He is a capable catch and shoot player, albeit in a small sample size (11-for-24 on the season, per Synergy). He’s only attempted 28 3’s on the season, which is frankly not adequate for an upperclassman with NBA hopes. Developing a 3-point shot is paramount for his NBA prospects.
Video: Shooting off the Dribble
— Saunders gathers himself to rise off the dribble. A large portion of his shots (21%) are in the pick and roll, and 56% of his pick and roll attempts are pull-up jumpers. Saunders is skilled, yet still developing, his off the dribble shooting.
Video: Defense (containing penetration)
— Saunders has quick hands and good anticipatory instincts on defense, but I’m not sure if he’s quick enough laterally to defend NBA-level competition.
2. Alex Rosenberg — PF, 6-7, 215
Junior, 22 years old
*Rosenberg played one season of postgraduate basketball at The Peddle School (NJ).
Season (28 mpg): 15 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 1.2 APG
46% FG, 46% three-point
Game: 34 points, 7 rebounds, 2 steals
10-17 FG, 4-6 three-point
Outlook: Rosenberg led Columbia, scoring a career-high 34 points including key free throws in regulation and overtime. At 6-7, he is a power forward with terrific range on his jump shot. He is Columbia’s best offensive player, and he’s very important to his team’s success, as his 4.1 win shares lead the Ivy League.
Rosenberg is most effective as a floor spacing shooter. He primarily sets up on the perimeter, where he can get a clean look over the top of the defense, or take bigger/slower defenders off the dribble. This season, 75 of his 216 attempts (35%) have been 3-pointers. In terms of shooting, he’s most effective with his feet set, shooting 48% on catch and shoot attempts this season. Rosenberg can curl around a screen or flair out for a quick attempt.
Although he’s a good shooter, Rosenberg is not nearly as effective in the paint. He occasionally flashed a face-up game (mostly jump shots) vs. Harvard, but he hardly scores with his back to the basket. In fact, only 3% of his attempts this season have been direct post ups. Through watching film of Rosenberg vs. St. John’s earlier this year, it’s obvious he struggles to score against length and athleticism. He lacks vertical athleticism, which often results in Rosenberg getting his shot blocked. Furthermore, Rosenberg has a tendency to scoop the ball underhand when driving. He inexplicably attempted four underhand layups vs. Harvard (by my count).
Also, I’m not sure where Rosenberg fits defensively. He’s too skinny to defend post players, and lacks the speed and athleticism to defend the perimeter. Rosenberg struggled to defend Harvard combo forward Steve Moundou-Missi, who finished with 22 points.
Going forward, Rosenberg must develop an interior game, and also adapt a more physical mindset. He needs to bulk up to play in the paint, instead of just moseying around the perimeter. Playing inside will position Rosenberg to compete for more rebounds. Overall, Rosenberg is a good shooter, but has a few areas to improve in. If he rounds out his game over the next 12 months, we can maybe revisit down the line.
Video: 3-Point Shooting
– Mostly catch and shoot.
Video: Around the Basket
Quick first step, but often finishes underhand.
Video: Post Struggles
Next Tier
3. Siyani Chambers — PG, 6-0, 170
Sophomore, 20 years old
Season (35 mpg): 11 PPG, 4.3 APG, 1.3 SPG
Game: 22 points, 0 assists
5-9 FG
Outlook: Chambers converted several difficult shots vs. Columbia, but from my perspective, his stat line misrepresents his actual ability. I don’t mean to denigrate Chambers, but he must adapt and vastly improve his game to become a viable NBA prospect.
Chambers is Harvard’s starting point guard and floor general. He possesses good feel for the game, capable of setting the tempo and initiating Harvard’s offensive actions. He’s accurate on his passes, both into the paint or moving the ball on the perimeter. Chambers can shoot when given space, particularly in catch and shoot, where he’s shooting 45%. More than anything else, though, Chambers plays with moxie, often converting shots in the clutch and elevating the play of his teammates.
That said, Chambers struggles in various aspects. At 6-feet, he lacks the quickness, length (6-1 wingspan) and vertical athleticism to finish at the basket. In fact, 87% of his attempts this season are jump shots, while only 12.5% are in the paint. He struggles to penetrate due to a lack of quickness, and if he does manage to penetrate, he really struggles to finish. He’s shooting 25% on only 16 attempts around the basket, and his inability to finish is apparent in person and on film. Chambers is also overly reliant on his strong hand (left), to the point he’ll spurn an open right-handed layup for a contested left-handed attempt.
Furthermore, Chambers lacks consistency on his jumper (38%), and is shooting 40% on from deep. He has poor lift on his shot, and lacks the necessary quickness to create space for himself in the half court. He’s crafty with the ball, but right now, he can’t create space in the half court.
I will admit that Chambers sticks to his strengths and doesn’t force it. But that doesn’t remedy his shortcomings. Lack of size, speed and vertical athleticism are a lot to overcome, especially defensively. I don’t see how Chambers can guard point guards at the next level.
At only 20 years old, Chambers has the natural talent to keep improving, but it will be difficult for him to reach an NBA level. He should start by perfecting his shooting, developing his right hand, and adding a floater.
Smart player, but in my opinion, his physical limitations are too much to overcome.
Video: Transition Struggles
— Chambers is posting a below average .79 points per transition attempt. His athletic shortcomings are apparent, to the point he often pulls up for a jumper instead of driving to the rim.
Video: Finishing struggles
Video: Assists
— Chambers had zero assists vs. Columbia, but he’s averaging 4 assists per game this season. However, I’m not able to glean specific attributes or tendencies from the film below. He is a good passer and can facilitate movement, but I don’t see anything worth nothing.
Video: Shooting (makes, misses)
— 87% of Chambers’ attempts are jump shots, converting 38%. He can change speeds to freeze the defense, and then quickly pull-up for a jumper. This is his most effective way of creating space in the half court.
Video: Defense (getting beat)
4. Maodo Lo — G, 6-3, 180
Sophomore
Season (32 mpg): 14 PPG, 4 RPG, 1.7 APG
Game: 20 points, 5 assists, 5 rebounds
5-17 FG, 2-9 three-point
Outlook: Lo is one of the smoothest guards in the Ivy League. He’s equipped with a quick crossover and first step to get in the lane and score. Lo is right handed, yet is equally capable of finishing with his left hand. He is smooth off the dribble, and constantly moving off the ball, which keeps in position to attack.
Smooth athlete with the ability to “glide.” He can create in isolation or the pick and roll, where he turns the corner with a burst through the lane. Lo can also shoot from 3, as he’s shooting 45% on five 3-point attempts per game.
Lo has developed nicely this year, and could be a top-tier shooting guard in the Ivy League next season. The next step is improving his mid-range game, as well his passing—he gets into the paint with such ease that you’d expect him to average more than 1.7 assists.
Video: Isolation
— Quick first step, can occasionally pull up for a jumper. I’m not sure what kind of athlete Lo is, but the ball handling and separation ability are present.
Video: Shooting
— Shooting 46% on all jump shots, as well as from 3-point range. He can shoot with his feet set (48%), off the dribble (41%), or running off screens (40%).
Video: Pick and Roll
— Lo plants his pivot foot and changes direction with ease. This change of pace is very effective, to create space and zip through the lane.
5. Steve Moundou-Missi — PF, 6-7, 225
Junior, 22 years old
Season (24.3 mpg): 9.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.5 BPG
50% FG on 6.7 attempts
Game: 22 points, 8 rebounds
7-13 FG, 8-10 FT
Outlook: Missi is a bouncy and explosive power forward with great activity around the basket. He’s nimble on his feet in the high post, quickly rolling off screens towards the basket. In the low post, he’s showcased an improving back to the basket game, finishing with turn-around jumpers and hook shots. Missi impacts the game with his energy, athleticism and activity in the paint. He occasionally creates his own shot, but most of his baskets come off angles, cuts and drop offs. 30% of his attempts are post ups (43% FG), while 22% are cuts (60% FG).
Going forward, Missi needs to get stronger in order to maximize his natural physicality. He also needs to improve his jump shot, because at 6-7 and with quick feet, he has good pick and pop potential. Per Synergy, only 21% of Missi’s attempts this season are jumpers (35% FG), while 77% are from the interior (49% FG). If he develops a shot, he could average 15-and-10 with increased minutes.
Missi did a solid job defending Columbia, though I honestly couldn’t glean much. He’s athletic, but I’m still not sure what position he’s best suited to guard. He’s physical, fast, and has a nose for the ball defensively.
Overall, Missi is a physical and athletic forward who just needs to keep on working. The next step in his development is refining his shot, adding some muscle and staying consistent with his interior touch. If he does, he could be an all-League player next season.
Video: Crashing Boards
Video: Around the Basket / Post Up
Video: Jump Shooting (9-26 this season)
(makes)
(misses)
6. Laurent Rivard — SG, 6-4, 215
Senior, 23 years old
Season (34 mpg): 9.7 PPG, 3 RPG
137 of 153 shots are 3’s; 40%
Game: 10 points, 5 rebounds
3-11 FG, 3-10 three-point
Outlook: Rivard is Harvard’s 3-point specialist (137 of his 153 attempts this season are 3’s). He has total autonomy in the offense, free—and possibly encouraged—to shot whenever he wants.
But he didn’t look great vs. Columbia. His lack of length, athleticism and ball handling make him one-dimensional, and he often jacks up unnecessary 3-pointers. As mentioned, 90% of his attempts are 3-pointers, but more than 60% of those attempts are catch and shoot. Rivard has difficulty creating his own shot, and frankly hasn’t been that efficient behind the arc this season.
He’s a skilled shooter, but he’s scrawny, slow off the ball, limited offensively (doesn’t even run off screens well), and too small defensively. Good college player, but I don’t see Rivard cracking an NBA rotation.
Video: 3’s Made
Video: 3’s Missed
*Ages calculated at time of 2014 NBA Draft (I could not find Wesley Saunders and Maodo Lo’s date of birth)