Video Breakdown: Jahii Carson

* I have not seen Carson compete live this season. The following breakdown is based on watching film and doing research.

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Strengths

• Speed and Quickness. Possessing “streetball” dribbling tactics and elite quickness, Caron weaves through the defense and penetrates the lane. He’s a blur in transition, and changes direction/weaves through the pick-and-roll very well. Carson converted 51% in transition, and 55%/1.11 PPP on pick-and-roll drives. Not excellent numbers, as his lack of size and athleticism cause him to struggle in the open floor, but from a positive outlook, he has elite end-to-end speed with a tight handle.

Transition

Carson struggles to finish over length, but he can weave his way around the court. He converted a decent 51% in transition this season.

Pick-and-Roll Drives

Carson is perhaps most dangerous turning the corner on the pick-and-roll, where he gets into the teeth of the defense and can (i) rise for a floater (46% in P/R situations), (ii) finish at the basket (55%), or dish it to the big man. Not overly impressive, but certainly a skill that’s translatable at the next level.

Finishing

Carson is a poor finisher, lacking size (5-11) or athleticism with the ball to finish. But for the sake of a thorough evaluation, it must be noted that he can occasionally convert at the basket. The conditions of him finishing are pretty clear: he needs a clear path to the basket (no help defense), and uses acrobatics to contort his body and finish.

A lot of these are difficult, low-percentage attempts. Can he sustain this in the NBA?

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• Catch-and-shoot 3-Pointer. Overall, Carson is not a reliable shooter right now. He converted 39% on 2.8 3-pointers per game, 35% on overall jumpers, and 0.89 points per jump shot attempt (50th percentile). But there is one redeeming skill: catch-and-shoot.

Last season, he made 22-48 (46%) jumpers with his feet set, and his 1.37 points per attempt actually ranked in the top 5 percentile nationally. It’s true he has poor shooting form (he releases the ball from his chin area, which is concerning considering he’s only 5-11), and it will be tough for him to get clear looks, but Carson proved capable of knocking down shots with his feet set. It’s always good to know that if the defense collapses the paint, you’re point guard can knock down open 3-pointers. Poor shooting form though.

Catch and Shoot Makes

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• Pull-Up Short Jumper. Carson’s 31.2% usage percentage ranked 2nd in the Pac-12. Almost habitually, he jacked up low percentage shots in the half court. With virtual autonomy, he forced drives, barreled into his defender, and tried to use streetball-type moves to break his man down and penetrate.

At only 5-11 and lacking NBA explosion, though, it just never clicked for Carson. The “light bulb” of how to run an offense while contributing individually never turned on last season.

However, Carson did occasionally flash the ability to knock down short-and-mid-range jump shots, even while forcing the issue.

He does a good job of penetrating via the screen, and then can fade-away on his pull-up jumper. He mixes in step-backs, fade-aways, and stutter steps to rise for a mid-range jumper. Carson was 13-35 (37%) on short-range jumpers, and 12-35 (34%) on mid-range jumpers. Not great, but he can knock them down when he’s clicking.

Short-Range

Mid-Range

Isolation

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• Decent Facilitator. Carson’s 29.7% assist percentage ranked 87th nationally, but in my opinion this metric misrepresents his real passing ability. Carson posted a pedestrian 1.3 assist-to-turnover ratio (4.6 AST/3.5 TO), and he’s not very impressive on film. Carson pounds the basketball and incessantly over-dribbles, and many of his assists resulted from the defense collapsing on Carson and chasing the basketball for no reason. I’m not saying Carson is a bad facilitator, but in my opinion, his assist numbers overstate his actual passing ability. He’s a score-first PG who occasionally passes.

Nevertheless, here is a compilation of his best half court assists this season.

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Weaknesses / Areas of Improvement

• 5-11 Scoring Point Guard. Undersized for position, and not efficient. 52% true shooting percentage, 0.87 points per possession (51st percentile nationally), 17 PER (15 is “average”).

Carson pounds the ball on the perimeter, tries to force his way into the lane, and struggles to finish at the basket (53% FG). He can occasionally knock down a jump shot (35% FG, .89 PPP), but overall he’s a volume-but-not-efficient scorer.

Carson is undersized for the point guard position, and it’s possible he’s already peaked physically, so adding muscle might not help his finishing struggles. He’s a poor shooter off the dribble and can’t finish. It’s true he’s a decent catch-and-shoot threat (46%), but he will likely see those percentages drop with less volume and further distance at the NBA level.

He’s a score-first player who hasn’t proved he can run an offense. A capable scorer if he’s feeling it (that is to say, if his jumper is clicking and he can finish straight-line drives where no defensive help is present). Maybe he can harness this “lightning in a bottle” effect and translate it to the NBA, as a spark plug off the bench. But it wont’ be easy, especially considering he’ll be 22 years old in August.

He’s more of a change-of-pace, score in bunches point guard at this point. But he doesn’t even do that efficiently enough to warrant playing time right now.

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• Poor Jump Shot, and no signs of improvement. Carson is only 5-11, and he releases the ball from the chin area. He’s prone to getting blocked or attempting layups at difficult angles.

He converted 39% from three-point, 37% short-range, 34% mid-range, and 72% from the foul line. Additionally, he shot a poor 31% off the dribble this season, and his 0.66 points per possession off the dribble ranked in the bottom 65th percentile nationally.

Carson over-dribbles, hoping to break his man down with “streetball” tactics. But more often than not, the opponent keeps his ground, and Carson ends up forcing up ill-advised shots.

Off the Dribble Misses

Short-Range Misses

Isolation Misses

Missed FTs

Made FTs

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• Finishing Struggles. Carson struggles to finish through defensive resistance if he doesn’t have a clear lane. He’s a below average leaper, and doesn’t have a polished floater to compensate for his lack of size/length. Instead, Carson relies on trying to convert at difficult angles, which clearly didn’t work throughout college.

In addition to struggling around the basket, Carson committed 3.5 turnovers per game as a redshirt sophomore. He tries to do too much/forces drives/throws careless passes. In other words, his turnovers resulted from trying to force himself into a player he aspires towards but currently isn’t—a speedy driver who finishes over length, creates for teammates and leads a unit.

I’m not saying Carson can’t get there, but he’s certainly not there right now.

Transition Misses

Poor vertical athlete, and not much touch. Can’t really compensate for a lack of touch.

Finishing Struggles

Undersized, tries to convert at difficult angles.

Poor Handle / Dribbles Into Nowhere

Careless Passes

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• Weak Left Hand. To compound his driving and finishing struggles, Carson exclusively uses his right hand to finish on the left side of the floor. He either forces the play back to his right, or uses his right hand on the left side.

He shouldn’t be limiting himself skill-wise if he’s already limited physically.

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• Defense (containing penetration). Carson struggles to stay in front of quicker and bigger guards on the perimeter, and on the pick-and-roll. Opponents converted 17-25 (68%) on pick-and-roll driving attempts this season. I’m mentioning this last, but it could possibly be of paramount importance/concern in his draft evaluation. If he can’t stay in front of opposing point guards, how will he crack an NBA rotation?